Saturday, October 09, 2004

What goes up, must come down...

Take the big differentials with a grain of salt. They are likely the result of an active Left internet presence. The ones in the 40-50% range are probably closer to the truth. But still, it’s kinda cool to see this much activity from our side.

Here’s some instant analysis from CBS:

Pundits: Bush Mad, Kerry composed

Fierce from the outset, Sen. John Kerry and President Bush pulled few punches in their second debate Friday night in St. Louis. Experts interviewed immediately following the head-to-head contest spoke to the style, the nuance of character and the unspoken gestures that often sway voters.

Though Mr. Bush was more composed than in last week's first presidential debate, all agreed his tone was sometimes antagonistic and he again appeared uncomfortable being challenged. Kerry, on the other hand, was viewed as measured and articulate. However, none of the experts touted a clear winner.

Here are some early results from DailyKos:

CNN

12% Bush
87% Kerry


SUSA Polls

Colorado (511 adults who watched entire debate)

42% Bush
41% Kerry
16% No Clear Winner


California (510 adults who watched entire debate)

38% Bush
48% Kerry
13% No Clear Winner


Oregon (532 adults who watched entire debate)

38% Bush
47% Kerry
15% No Clear Winner


Washington (498 adults who watched debate in full)

36% Bush
49% Kerry
14% No Clear Winner

MSNBC

31% Bush
69% Kerry

ABC

44% Kerry
41% Bush

And then more results:


From Political Strategy:

MSNBC
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 69%
Bush: 31%

CNN (Scroll Down to 'Quick Vote')
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 78%
Bush: 20%

CNN America Votes (This is different from the on above. Vote in both!)
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 87%
Bush: 12%

CBS News
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 88%
Bush: 11%

Fox News (Scroll Down)
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 48%

Boston Globe
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 87%
Bush: 10%

AOL
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 49%

Yahoo News
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 64%
Bush: 33%

Campaigns and Elections
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 64%
Bush: 35%

MS. Magazine
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 74%
Bush: 26%


Online Polls in Swing States (Hit em Hard!)

Tampa Bay Online
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 89%
Bush: 10%

Denver Post
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 23%
Bush: 68%

Rocky Mountain News
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 95%
Bush: 5%

KOLO TV Reno, NV (Scroll Down)
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 91%
Bush: 9%

Asheville Citizen-Times, NC (Scroll Down - This link has been fixed)
Ongoing Poll Results
Kerry: 87%
Bush: 13%


ABC News Debate Poll

(Debate reaction poll - not an online poll)

Who won the debate?
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 41%

CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup debate reaction poll (not an online poll)

Who won the debate?
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 45%

How many people perceive the following candidate more favorably as a result of the debate?
Kerry: 38%
Bush: 31%

Some early Fair And Balanced (actually!) from the Gang of Fox, also from DailyKos:

Mort Kondracke: "... I think Kerry won this debate as he won the first debate I don't think... I thought that Kerry was much more aggressive and the president was basically on the defense and didn't have new arguments didn't have...wasn't as facile as he should have been." [Fox News Channel, 10/8/04]

Bill Kristol: "I guess I think if you think the President was doing okay and didn't need a win in this debate, he did fine, but I think, if one thinks that Bush missed an awful lot of opportunities to go after Kerry in the first debate he had to make some of them up in this debate, I'm not sure he really succeeded in doing so." [Fox New Channel, 10/8/04]

Brit Hume: "Is it now fair to say that in each of these debates in terms of marshaling arguments, and remembering them and presenting them that this is something John Kerry has proved he is very good at. And that it doesn't play to the president's strong suit." [Fox News Channel, 10/8/04]

Mort Kondracke: "I thought [Kerry] was very effective. I thought that he was also on the attack a lot and frankly I thought that the President seemed to be on the defense a lot and trying to explain things and not explaining them all that well." [Fox News Channel, 10/8/04]

Tim Russert: "John Kerry, also, energetic, forceful." [NBC, 10/8/04)

Jonah Goldberg: "On the question of whether Bush did everything he needed to tonight, I don't think so. I think he helped himself, but Kerry leaves these debates energized." [National Review Online, 10/8/04]

Mark Shields: "He just absolutely, I thought, demolished the President's claims about the coalition in Iraq." [PBS, 10/8/04]

James Fallows, Atlantic Monthly: [Kerry's best moment] "I think his best moment was at the series of new lines. Again like this Missouri line of saying that that I was able to do with some of my votes in the Senate what you have failed to do, which is balance the budget, so I think it was the general vividness of his approach." [CBS, 10/8/04]

Perry Bacon: "I actually was struck that Kerry was pretty strong, I thought, in the foreign policy section, actually, and sort of hit the president hard on that." [CNN, 10/8/04]

Seems that the consensus seems to be that our guy won. GWBush has had two chances now, and I’m really curious to see what he tries next. Witchcraft? Voodoo? That ol’ black magic?

We’ll see. Regardless, the sycophants will be happy, the more reasoned advisors will be much more nervous, and GWBush will probably say “Whaddaya mean I was yelling? I DON’T YELL!"