Friday, November 03, 2006

We skipped the light fandango, turned cartwheels cross the floor

Stuart Rothenberg isn't always right, but he's not often too wrong, either. Here he is 10.6.2006, almost a month ago:
After looking at the news for the past 10 days or so, I have to wonder how Democrats can possibly fail in their efforts to take both the House and the Senate.

The national atmospherics don't merely favor Democrats; they set the stage for a blowout of cosmic proportions next month.

No, that's not a prediction, since Republicans still have a month to "localize" enough races to hold onto one or both chambers of Congress. But you don't have to be Teddy White or V.O. Key to know that the GOP is now flirting with disaster.

Let's forget all of the niceties and diplomatic language and cut to the obvious truth: From the White House to Capitol Hill, Republicans look inept. And that assertion is based on what Republicans are saying. Democratic rhetoric is much harsher and, therefore, easier to dismiss as partisan claptrap.

So? Well, here he is today at The Rothenberg Political Report:
The Senate:
"While Senate control is in doubt, with Democrats most likely to win from 5 to 7 seats, we do not think the two sides have an equal chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Instead, we believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate."
The House:
"Going into the final days before the 2006 midterm elections, we believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible. This would put Democrats at between 237 and 243 seats, if not a handful more, giving them a majority in the next House that is slightly larger than the one the Republicans currently hold. If these numbers are generally correct, we would expect a period of GOP finger-pointing and self-flagellation after the elections, followed by a considerable number of Republican House retirements over the next two years."
Sounds pretty good to me. Yippee!

Meanwhile, just to try and help more, I'm doing 6 hours of calling for between now and Election day. Hopefully some of you can do the same. Cause it still isn't a sure thing.